Is Now a Good Time for Trucking Businesses? A 2024 Forecast for Trucking

August 10, 2023

The trucking industry stands as the backbone of the global economy, facilitating the movement of goods and ensuring supply chains remain operational. Over the years, this vital sector has encountered a myriad of challenges and opportunities that have shaped its trajectory. As we stand on the cusp of 2024, it’s crucial to examine what lies ahead for trucking businesses. In this forecast, we’ll delve into the potential highs and lows, innovations, regulatory shifts, and market dynamics that could impact the industry.


Market Demand and Industry Challenges: Navigating Unpredictability 

2024 brings a mixed bag of market demand and challenges. Analyzing the current market demand across sectors provides insights into potential growth areas. However, trucking businesses must contend with fluctuating freight rates, increased competition, and the potential entry of new market players.

Market Conditions

Trucking companies may expect challenging market conditions in 2024, as indicated by a recent report from transportation analyst firm FTR. In March, FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) fell to -5.83 from February’s -5.17, indicating ongoing carrier challenges. The drop resulted from costly financing and a negative rate environment due to lower spot rates, partly offset by lower fuel costs and slightly improved utilization rates. 

Note: The TCI monitors five key aspects of the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. These metrics are combined into a single index reflecting the industry’s overall health. Positive scores mean good conditions, negative scores indicate challenges, and near-zero readings are neutral, while double-digit scores suggest potential major changes.


Parcel delivery prices are expected to remain low for the rest of 2023 due to weak pricing. However, a forecast suggests that there could be a rise of 6% to 10% in rates for both base charges and additional fees in 2024  due to the impact of inflation and the significant control carriers have over business-to-business (B2B) deliveries, and to some extent, business-to-consumer (B2C) deliveries as well.


Freight Volumes

During the initial quarter of 2023, there was a slight 0.5 percent increase in freight volumes, marking a pause in the consecutive quarterly drops that began in 2022. While the sector associated with freight is projected to remain feeble for the remainder of 2023, a resurgence in growth is anticipated in 2024, as per the recent findings of the Transportation Intermediaries Association’s 3PL Market Report for the first quarter of 2023. 


Higher volumes will benefit the freight carrier but may put added pressure on the industry as a whole.To tackle this, more technology will be used. Tools that save time like TMS and logistics providers will make things work better and get more done.



According to the EIA, U.S Energy Information Administration,  gasoline and diesel retail prices are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024 following peak levels in the first half of 2022. Forecasts indicate an average retail price of $3.32 per gallon (gal) for regular-grade gasoline in 2023, further decreasing to $3.09/gal in 2024, down from $3.96/gal in 2022. Meanwhile, on-highway diesel prices are projected to average $4.23/gal in 2023, followed by a decrease to $3.70/gal in 2024. These predictions are driven by expectations of reduced demand growth for diesel and motor gasoline, coupled with sustained high production levels for these products.


Labor and Workforce Trends: Evolving Faces Behind the Wheel 

As 2024 dawns, the trucking industry confronts persistent labor shortages, with owner operators contemplating a complete departure. Within this landscape, the workforce is experiencing a transformative process driven by innovative strategies to tackle the scarcity of drivers. Moreover, technology is augmenting driver experiences, intricately weaving the role of truckers with advanced digital tools, within this dynamic scenario.


According to a survey conducted by FreightWaves Research, a significant portion of owner-operators are contemplating exiting the current market due to its challenging nature. The survey found that 35.2% of self-identified owner-operators indicated their intention to leave the industry if there isn’t a substantial market rebound by the conclusion of 2023. Additionally, approximately 21% of respondents expressed difficulty in locating loads to transport, implying that the challenges weren’t primarily driven by volume issues, at least for the time being. In contrast, fewer than 8% mentioned the possibility of affiliating with a larger carrier. 


According to ATA, the American Trucking Association, there were 8.4 million people employed in trucking-related jobs in 2022 and women makeup 8.1% of the industry’s drivers – an all-time high and the seventh straight annual increase. As the trucking industry continues to grapple with attracting drivers, the focus on retaining them will take center stage in order to keep employment numbers high. Addressing the labor shortage will require enhancements across various fronts, including offering better pay, upgrading working conditions, providing improved benefits, ensuring safety for female drivers, and introducing enticing bonus programs. These improvements, coupled with the integration of new technologies to make operations smoother, will be instrumental in attracting a larger pool of drivers and other workers.


Technological Advancements: Pioneering the Future of Trucking 

The march of technology is relentless, and the trucking sector is no exception. Autonomous trucks are inching closer to reality, promising enhanced efficiency and safety. Blockchain applications and real-time tracking systems are revolutionizing transparency and traceability in supply chains. Adapting to these innovations will be imperative for staying competitive in a tech-driven industry.


Supply Chain Resilience: Learning from Disruptions 

Recent supply chain disruptions have emphasized the need for resilience. The lessons learned from these challenges are driving changes in supply chain strategies. Trucking companies are investing in redundancies, alternative routes, and enhanced communication systems to withstand unforeseen disruptions and maintain seamless operations.


The trucking industry is seeking enhanced productivity and accuracy across all operational aspects. Many companies are seeking assistance from logistics providers to effectively organize, plan, and manage their operations. Additionally, there’s a growing need for user-friendly payment solutions to handle logistics transactions.


Addressing these requirements, RoadSync presents a comprehensive solution for day-to-day payment processing necessities. Drawing upon our extensive knowledge of the freight industry, we’ve devised a system designed to cater to brokers, carriers, drivers, repair & tow operators, warehouses, and lumpers. Our digital platform offers a hassle-free solution for making payments, generating invoices, and facilitating payment acceptance.


By embracing RoadSync, freight carriers and owner-operators stand to benefit from time savings and quicker payment processing. Furthermore, our system offers safeguards against fraudulent activities and service-related disputes. If you’re interested in exploring our advanced digital payment processing solutions, don’t hesitate to get in touch with RoadSync today. In the realm of freight, the value of time is tantamount to that of money, and our solutions help you safeguard and optimize both.


Conclusion: Navigating the Road Ahead 

As we gaze into the future of the trucking industry in 2024, it’s evident that a complex landscape awaits. The interplay of economic factors, technological revolutions, environmental imperatives, and regulatory shifts will define the trajectory of trucking businesses. While challenges abound, so do opportunities for those willing to adapt, innovate, and embrace change. As we stand at this crossroads, the question remains: Is now a good time for trucking businesses? The answer lies in the industry’s ability to harness the winds of change and steer toward a prosperous horizon.